There’s one reason several candidates we think might run for Council in 2014 likely will not.
You see, all three incumbents (Laura Hoffmeister, Ron Leone and Tim Grayson) are giving every sign that they intend to seek re-election.
That makes it tough for the newcomers because an incumbent seeking re-election hasn’t been defeated since 1993 – and then all three incumbents lost. For over twenty years the only way a new face has gained a seat on the City Council was through the retirement (or promotion) of an incumbent and the creation of an “open seat.”
Here’s the chart as I recall it, listing winners and who they replaced:
2012 – Dan Helix (I); Edi Birsan (Bill Shinn retired)
2010 – Laura Hoffmeister (I); Tim Grayson (Guy Bjerke retired); Ron Leone (Helen Allen retired)
2008 – Bill Shinn (I); Mark Peterson (I)
2006 – Laura Hoffmeister (I); Helen Allen (I); Michael Chavez (Susan Bonilla elected Supervisor)
2004 – Mark Peterson (I); Bill Shinn (Bill McManigal retired)
2002 – Laura Hoffmeister (I); Helen Allen (I); Susan Bonilla (Mike Pastrick retired)
2000 – Mark Peterson (I); Bill McManigal (I)
1997 – Helen Allen (I); Mike Pastrick (I); Laura Hoffmeister (Lou Rosas retired)
1995 – Bill McManigal (I); Mark Peterson (Colleen Coll retired)
1993 – Lou Rosas; Helen Allen; Mike Pastrick defeated incumbents Nancy Gore, Byron Campbell and Lloyd Mashore.
Prospective candidates are also probably thinking that Dan Helix is unlikely to seek another term in 2016 – creating the open seat that has been the only way to win a Council seat in recent history.
Most political analysts are predicting a low voter turnout and a pretty boring election this November. Perhaps the most interesting part of Concord’s election will be seeing who chooses to run for City Council in 2014 and who chooses to wait for an open seat.
Your thoughts? Leave a comment below.